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Oregon Coronavirus Update (Part 1) Cases/Deaths/Vaccines

  • Writer: Lisa Reynolds, MD
    Lisa Reynolds, MD
  • Jan 1, 2021
  • 4 min read

Lisa Reynolds, MD, pediatrician and Representative-Elect for Oregon House District 36.

12/31/20


Lisa’s Oregon Coronavirus Update Summary: Oregon is seeing a slow in the spread of COVID! There is overall a downward trend in COVID cases everywhere. This is good news although we brace for a spike in cases due to Christmas travel. Not good news? The vaccine roll out is slow.


COVID in the World

Cases: 82 million; Deaths: 1.7 m (trend is downward)


COVID in the US

Cases: 19.5 m; Deaths: 339,000 (trend is downward)

(pace: 200,000 cases/day; 3,600 deaths/day; our 14 day case count is down 11% compared with previous 2 wks)

There will invariably be an uptick in cases and deaths due to holiday travel, which was brisk.

The US makes up 4.4% of the world’s population, but we make up about 20% (19%) of the world’s deaths. And we are the richest, most advanced country in the world. Our public health system is broken and has failed miserably. And yes this in part due to Trump’s politicization of masks and of social distancing and the underfunding of COVID testing and control measures.


COVID in Oregon

Oregon COVID Cases: 111,000 (2600/100K) - we are averaging 1000 cases/day; down 30%. Our Rt is 0.88, which means that for every case of COVID, fewer than on person catches it from that person! This is a huge success! Let’s hope it’s not a statistical glitch (under-reporting cases/tests/etc). [https://rt.live] Furthermore, our hospitalization count is down. Long story short, the restrictions placed on high risk counties seem to be working!


Oregon COVID Deaths: 1500 (35/100K); down 43%. We continue to be among the 10 best in the nation for cases and for deaths.


We need to prepare for an increase in cases and deaths resulting from holiday travel, which was brisk. Portland International airport had its busiest travel day on Sunday Dec 27 since the March stay home orders.






Governor Brown’s Framework for County COVID risk and Associated Restrictions

Starting Jan 1, five counties in the extreme risk category have been downgraded to high risk. This means some of the restrictions in those counties have been loosened. The Tri-county area continues in the Extreme risk category. Here is a list of counties and their statuses.


TriCounty area (Extreme Risk):

  • Limiting restaurants and bars to take-out and outdoor dining only.

  • Closing gyms and other indoor recreational facilities, museums, and indoor entertainment like theaters.

  • Outdoor recreational facilities, zoos, gardens, and entertainment venues with strict numbers (<50). City parks and playgrounds will remain open.

  • Requiring all businesses to mandate that employees work from home when possible, and to close offices to the public.

  • Limiting grocery and retail stores to 50% capacity and encouraging curbside pickup service.

  • Prohibiting visits at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

  • Limiting social get togethers, whether indoors or out, to no more than six people from two households.

  • Limiting worship services (worship/funerals) to 25% or 100 people when indoors and 150 people when outdoors.

  • WA, CA and OR have asked folks to refrain from non essential travel and to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival from out of state.


Vaccine News

First, I received my COVID vaccine last night. I am incredibly grateful. (Moderna, dose #1).

Second, I am dismayed, but not too surprised, at the lackluster rates at which we (US and Oregon) are getting vaccines into people’s arms. We must do better - at these rates, it will take 3-4 years to provide sufficient immunity to save lives, livelihoods, and get kids back into school.

  • US: 2.8 million doses of COVID vaccine had been given out of 12.4 million doses sent to states (Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines combined). 22% CDC Covid Vaccine Tracker

  • Oregon: As of 12/29 (31,380/131,575) we are at 24%. While OHA has a vaccine plan, they do not have goals of vaccines administered per day. OHA tracker.

    • Administering the vaccine strains an already stretched public health system. In Oregon, we have seen challenges in doing sufficient testing and contact tracing. And now we are adding this new job. Fortunately, state and federal resources (dollars) are being allocated as well. Still we need a robust system to quickly accelerate our vaccine rates. This is an all hands on deck, need-to-think-out-of-the-box moment. Stay tuned.

    • The federal government has contracted with pharmacy chains to help with vaccine distribution (Costco, Walgreens, etc). They will send teams of pharmacists and staff into nursing homes to administer the vaccines.

Moderna v Pfizer (article): note: states do not have control over which vaccine they receive at this time.

  • Both Moderna and Pfizer vaccine show 94-95% effectiveness at preventing severe COVID disease. It’s not clear if a vaccinated individual could still get mild or asymptomatic COVID. If so, even a vaccinated person may shed COVID virus. As we know, our precautions (masking/handwashing/distancing) must stay in place for a long time (at the very least, until we have 80-90% vaccination rates).

  • Cold Chain Storage

    • Moderna: Ship at -4 degrees Fahrenheit (regular freezer); after thawing, can be stored in refrigerator for 30 days, room temperature for 12 hours

    • Pfizer/BioNTech: Ship at -94 degrees F (ultra cold freezer). Pfizer (with the help of UPS) has a specially designed dry ice box, which, when kept sealed, will keep the vaccine at the required temperature for 10 days. This box also has a temperature monitor and a GPS tracking device. After thawing, vaccine must be used in 5 days.

  • Minimum Order

    • Moderna: 100 doses; distributed in 10 dose vials (each dose 100 mcg of vaccine)

    • Pfizer: 975 doses (a more cumbersome process); distributed in 5 dose vials (each dose: 30 mcg)

  • Second doses (first dose confers approx 50% protection, vs 94-95% for two doses)

    • Moderna: 28 days after first dose (can be longer)

    • Pfizer: 21 days after first dose (can be longer)


 
 
 

留言

This website is written by Lisa Reynolds, MD, Portland, Oregon Pediatrician on the front lines of the coronavirus epidemic. Mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

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Lisa Reynolds, M.D., Announces COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery 

Legislative Framework

Proposed framework prioritizes health of all Oregonians, with phased restart of state’s economy

 

April 17, 2020 (Portland, OR) - Lisa Reynolds, M.D., a physician and candidate for Oregon House of Representatives-District 36 (NW/SW Portland), released a legislative framework called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, with the goal of making this the first bill of the 2021-22 legislative session (HB-1). 

 

“In the next weeks and months ahead, I plan to work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to help design Oregon's transition and recovery from the pandemic,” said Reynolds. “If we do this right, Oregon can come out better than ever. And of course, I will continue to reach out to Oregonians about what they need right now so we can help.” 

 

The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians lives and livelihoods, consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, contact tracing, and isolating the ill and the exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90 percent) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Oregon COVID Bonds would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. “This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools,” stated Reynolds.  

 

“I want everyone to understand that the 2021-22 legislative session must be focused entirely on pandemic response and recovery,” said Reynolds. “I believe we can rebuild Oregon and make us stronger and more equitable in the process.” This legislative framework also accounts for a lack of federal leadership, positioning Oregon as a national leader.

 

The latest numbers in Oregon show that the state is predicted to peak on April 26. As a result of Governor Brown’s Stay Home Order, Oregon’s hospital systems have sufficient capacity to care for those sickest with COVID-19. Reynolds says that eventually, the cumulative number of new illnesses and deaths will plateau. Oregon will then enter a period of transition, and once sufficient herd immunity is achieved, we can move into post-pandemic recovery.

 

“As a physician, I have prepared my entire career for this moment,” says Reynolds. “We cannot rely on the status quo or politics as usual. We need leaders with medical expertise who can work across the aisle and bring fresh perspectives at this critical time in our history. We need courageous and bold action to make sure that Oregon comes out of this crisis stronger and more equitable than before.” 

 

Reynolds, who was recently endorsed by the Portland Tribune “[for] her invaluable insight for these troubling times”, also says that, “every state policy and every state agency will need to prioritize spending and services through the lens of the pandemic.” 

 

Read the full legislative framework here. Visit Reynolds’ COVID-19 website at oregoncoronavirusupdate.com or her campaign website LisaForOregon.com. Follow Dr. Reynolds on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (@lisafororegon).

 

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Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act Legislative Framework

 

Following is a legislative framework for a successful and equitable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act (HB-1). This legislative framework was drafted by Lisa Reynolds, M.D., candidate for Oregon State House of Representatives-District 36. Dr. Reynolds, who will solicit feedback from voters about what the Oregon State Legislature needs to focus on in the upcoming 2021-2022 legislative session. 

 

Dr. Reynolds will also work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to identify the most impactful and cost-effective steps to get Oregonians back on solid ground. The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act is a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians’ lives and livelihood. The framework consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, tracing of all contacts, and isolating the ill and the exposed. Extensive, if not universal, testing, both for the presence of the virus, that is, contagiousness, and presence of antibody, or immunity, is necessary before any significant reopening of the economy. Testing must be followed up with tracing of the contacts of all COVID-19 cases, and isolation for those infected or exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90%) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening. True economic reopening requires widespread immunity, either through previous COVID-19 illness or through widespread vaccination.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools, and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Any full scale ‘re-opening’ in the near future would risk Oregonians’ lives. Rather, restrictions must be lifted methodically and incrementally. The state needs to start planning for a massive vaccine campaign as soon as the vaccine is available. Oregon should be the first state with demonstrated ‘herd immunity’ so that Oregonians can resume safe interactions with friends, family, and neighbors. 

 

HB1: The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act of 2021-2022 Outline

 

Intra-Pandemic: Stay Home, Save Lives

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal

      • Educate and feed children

      • Protect the vulnerable from economic damage

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Test/trace/isolate - build a public health workforce 

    • Tech for schools - provide robust learning for every Oregon student

    • Table - feed the hungry, allocate unemployment benefits, provide rent relief and continue to ban evictions

 

Transition: reopening (gradual and partial)

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal:

      • Safe return to economic life (incremental, methodical)

      • Safe return to school 

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Universal testing/tracing/isolation - database

    • Statewide Alert system for Oregonians for disease hot spots

    • Build a vaccine fund - and a system to vaccinate all Oregonians

 

Post-Pandemic (herd immunity; post-vaccine) - a stronger, more equitable Oregon

  • Goals

    • Economic recovery 

    • Prepare Oregon for its greatest decade of economic growth

    • Improved lives for all Oregonians

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Oregon COVID Bonds - to raise and invest $4B/year for 5 years

      • Basics

        • Modernize public health and healthcare systems

        • 21st-century schools from PreK-post secondary

        • Build Infrastructure - bridges, public transport, bike lanes

        • Build Housing - affordable & supportive housing

      • Boosts: Climate action

        • Give preference and priority for projects that reduce carbon, increase climate resiliency, and increase economic opportunity equitably. 

 

The proposed funding would be through COVID-19 Bonds. This approach would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools. 

 

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