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Coronavirus Update Fri 3/27/20 10 am

Coronavirus Update

3/27/2020 10:00 am

Lisa Reynolds MD


This is Lisa Reynolds, MD. Portland Pediatrician, mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.


SUMMARY:

  • Modeling shows that Oregon’s current measures will really work to contain COVID19. Keep up the good work! (see below)

  • Action: Call your Members of Congress to pass the Medical Supply Chain Act and to pass the aid/stimulus package (see below).


Coronavirus: The numbers

  • WORLDWIDE: 536,000 confirmed cases, 24,000 deaths, 171 countries

  • Site for tracking US numbers: https://covidtracking.com/

  • US: 85,700 confirmed cases, 1200 deaths; The US now has the most cases confirmed in the world.

  • WASHINGTON: 3200 confirmed cases, 147deaths

  • OREGON: 316 confirmed cases, 11 deaths, 90 hospitalized (WA 3200 cases/147deaths)

  • US Stay at Home orders are in place in 22 states (including OR, WA, CA), plus several counties and cities, covering about half of all Americans.


OREGON update

  • Review: Oregon’s Governor Brown issues Executive Order 20-12: Stay Home, Save Lives. (3/23/2020) This does the following:

  • Oregonians need to stay home except for the following tasks:

  • Medical Appointments

  • Grocery shopping and getting take out food

  • Outdoor Exercise

  • And, all must maintain social distancing of 6 feet from others in these activities.

  • Closure: Non essential “retail” businesses/non profits in which personal contact is hard to avoid:

  • Gyms, nail shops, malls, museums, ski resorts…

  • Open: Essential businesses: grocery stores, pharmacies, medical facilities, those necessary for infrastructure. Groceries and pharmacies can limit numbers of customers at a time, etc. (Bars & restaurants can remain open for take out food.)

  • Closure: Childcare centers except for those taking care of children of first responders. Each room in a center must have less than 10 people per room. This group of 10 or fewer must be “stable” (the same group every day).

  • Prohibited: gatherings, parties, or in-person socializing.

  • Work Remotely: All other businesses are strongly encouraged to arrange for remote work. If work must be done in person, maintain social distancing of 6 feet

  • Closed: All campgrounds, all state parks, all playgrounds/outdoor sport courts and sports fields/skate parks/pools. Other parts of public parks are open for recreation. Parks must post signs mandating social distancing.

  • Many national parks are closed including those in WA, OR, CA. Other parts of public parks are open for recreation.

  • Closed: Trails in the waterfall corridor of the Columbia Gorge (Oregon side): from Bridal Veil Falls to Ainsworth State Park (including historic highway).

  • Non-essential travel is banned. Essential travel: To essential workplaces, to get food or health care, to visit close family of those in need, and to home.

  • Violations are a Class C misdemeanor (subject to $1250 fine or up to 30 days in jail)


Yes, this means massive disruption in our work and our education and our personal lives. The lives of Oregonians and the safety of our health system depend on making the right choices right now. REMEMBER THE CURVE. We need to #Flattenthecurve


An analysis of Oregon by The Institute for Disease Modeling suggests THIS WILL WORK if we all comply (Oregonian article here):

  • If followed strictly, Gov Brown’s Stay at Home order will slow the growth of infections and reduce the overall number of infections to the point where we will have enough medical capacity, equipment and personnel to care for the sickest patients. This is the goal.

  • The analysis also estimates that Oregon has four times the number of cases than the number of confirmed cases. (I suspect it’s even higher.)

  • We will need extensive testing in order to determine when we relax social distancing.

  • We will need these strict distancing controls in place for a long time….



Medical Equipment: Personal Protection Equipment and Ventilators: Supplies remain inadequate. The rationing of PPE is leading to medical personnel illness and death. Doctors are innovating with using one ventilator for several patients. Please call your Members of Congress: “I beg Congress to pass the Medical Supply Chain Emergency Act. Congress must force the Administration to take control of the manufacturing and distribution of scarce medical equipment. We need massive production and fair distribution NOW.” Phone numbers (and other action calls) here.



What to do - the list is pretty short now

  • Stay Home, Stay Healthy

  • We really should call it PHYSICAL distancing, not social distancing: Look for ways to engage - I’ve been video conferencing with friends.

  • Continue to wash hands/hand sanitizer. Try not to touch your face. If you’re in an essential job, strip down and shower when you get home, and wash your clothes. And, thank you.

  • This article shows you how to do clean high touch surfaces.

  • Donate Blood - blood drives have been cancelled but we still need blood donors.

  • CALL your US Members of Congress about the US Bailout package and the Medical Supply Chain Emergency Act. Scripts and phone numbers here. (And above)


Services

  • Many Oregon internet companies are offering free service; energy and telecommunications utilities are suspending service disconnections, and waiving late fees to support Oregonians impacted by coronavirus. In addition, state and federal programs can provide assistance to qualified individuals and households. Read more here.

  • Portland public schools is providing meals for families (resuming Mar 30). Details here.

  • Medical students and nursing students, whose classes are cancelled, are offering childcare and other services for health care workers. Twitter users can send a direct message to Medical student Emily Lane at @EmilyCALane. There’s also a program hotline: 503-383-9776.

  • The state and the federal governments are pouring more resources to help businesses and employees affected by furloughs, layoffs, decreased hours and lost revenue. More information: unemployment benefits, small businesses.



What I’m worried about

  • Of course, disease and illness overwhelming our health system.

  • Doctors will have to decide who gets life saving treatment (ventilators) and who doesn’t because equipment is in short supply.

  • Doctors getting sick because of inadequate PPE.

  • The health and safety of my friends and family

  • I’m grateful that modeling is showing that Oregon can dramatically slow COVID19 with our current measures. We need to stick with this plan.

  • That Oregon public schools are not equipped (nor do they seem to be making plans to become equipped) to provide substantive online learning. See this article. This will lead to a larger learning and performance gap for our vulnerable kids. This could have lifelong consequences for those kids whose families cannot fill the void. The inequities in our education system was a driving force for me to run for office. Washington state is calling on its schools to continue instruction. We can do hard things and must. Our kids’ futures depend on finding a solution and not writing off weeks or months of instruction. Remember, the brain is a muscle (this is metaphor) and must be used!!!



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This website is written by Lisa Reynolds, MD, Portland, Oregon Pediatrician on the front lines of the coronavirus epidemic. Mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

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