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Oregon Coronavirus Update 4/28/2020: Oregon's Economic Forecast; Masks work!

Writer's picture: Lisa Reynolds, MDLisa Reynolds, MD

Oregon Coronavirus Update

Tue 4/28/2020


Lisa Reynolds MD

This is Lisa Reynolds, MD. Portland Pediatrician, mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

Today: The Grim Economic Outlook for Oregon. The Case for Universal Masking.


Coronavirus: The numbers

  • WORLDWIDE: 3 million confirmed cases, 205,000 deaths

  • US: 988,000 confirmed cases, 51,000 deaths;

  • OREGON: 2300 confirmed cases, 92 deaths

  • Week 6 of Gov Brown’s Stay Home Order



Oregon’s Economic Outlook - It’s grim

Ted Sickinger of the Oregonian describes the mounting challenges and threats to Oregon’s economy.

Loss of Revenue

85% of Oregon’s revenue comes from personal income tax. With job losses, job furloughs, cuts to hours and pay, we can expect a decrease in this bucket of revenue to be 22%, or $2.7 billion for the biennium (2 year budget cycle).

Other revenue streams that will decline: Gas tax, lottery revenue (loss of $250-$500 million), park visitor revenue, registration fees, lodging tax, corporate income tax, capital gains

Increased Costs

Oregon Health Authority has increased costs for COVID testing, a public health workforce, and other COVID response.

Oregon Employment Department has increased its workforce from 105 to 600 with a goal of 800 employees to help process unemployment claims.

Department of Human Services (9K employees, budget $12.5B/biennium) - increased demand for services

Unemployment in Oregon

330,000 have filed for unemployment, which is double the number who filed in the 2008 recession

Federal Dollars ($2.45B)

Earmarked for local jurisdictions and specific services and projects. Cannot be used for backfilling state revenue holes. Indeed Sen Mitch McConnell says states will just have to file for bankruptcy.

Clearly more federal dollars are needed, with fewer strings attached.

Rainy Day Fund = $2.5B

Actions by State (40K employees)

Some agencies are cutting hours. State Parks is not hiring its usual seasonal workforce (half its workforce). No direction for cost cutting by Gov Brown who is waiting for the May 20 forecast.


Lisa's conclusion: We need bold ideas to fill our revenue hole. Oregon COVID bonds to stimulate investment in our future is just one idea I am pursuing. What do you think?



The case for Universal Masking

Universal masking: It’s cheap, it’s easy and it can really stop the spread of COVID!!

  • NYState requires universal masking, as does SF and LA.

  • 25% of countries mandate masks in some public settings.

  • Most countries recommend masking

  • Half of COVID is spread from someone with sx, ½ spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

  • If just 60% of folks wear masks that are 60% effective, we could control the spread!

The spread of COVID

  • Initially thought to be via large droplet from a coughing or sneezing contagious person, which would fall to the ground within 6 feet. So: 6 feet of social distancing.

  • Then - evidence showed that the virus could travel farther - tiny droplets. AND that singing or talking propels virus into the air.

  • Masks will prevent a contagious person from emitting virus by keeping the virus behind the mask. A mask prevents droplets from “entering” a potential victim. Masks can have a tremendous impact on reducing transmission of virus.

  • About half of contagious people are without symptoms (it’s before they develop illness or they are in the minority who can spread the virus without ever having any symptoms).



Why are we NOT recommending universal masking?

  • Misunderstanding of how virus is spread (6 feet separation was felt to be sufficient. This is now discredited.)

  • Concern for shortage of masks for medical personnel

    • But now we know home-made masks are effective for stopping spread

  • Oregon language in OHA “You can wear a mask…” I think we should change to “you should wear a mask.” or even “you must wear a mask”


Okay, so we should be universally masking. What kind of mask?

  • Medical personnel need medical masks

  • OTHERS: Homemade: Most any material will work - the tighter the weave, the better. The more layers the better.



  • Here is a link to quickly make your own mask without sewing. Many sewers are making masks - check fb or etsy.

  • If 60% of us wore masks that were 60% effective at blocking the droplets/virus, we would decrease the transmission rate to one person per positive case. This halts the spread of COVID.

Lisa's conclusion: Masks are a cheap, quick, no-risk intervention that could slow (or halt) the spread of COVID19. Oregon should call for universal masking now.






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This website is written by Lisa Reynolds, MD, Portland, Oregon Pediatrician on the front lines of the coronavirus epidemic. Mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

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Lisa Reynolds, M.D., Announces COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery 

Legislative Framework

Proposed framework prioritizes health of all Oregonians, with phased restart of state’s economy

 

April 17, 2020 (Portland, OR) - Lisa Reynolds, M.D., a physician and candidate for Oregon House of Representatives-District 36 (NW/SW Portland), released a legislative framework called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, with the goal of making this the first bill of the 2021-22 legislative session (HB-1). 

 

“In the next weeks and months ahead, I plan to work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to help design Oregon's transition and recovery from the pandemic,” said Reynolds. “If we do this right, Oregon can come out better than ever. And of course, I will continue to reach out to Oregonians about what they need right now so we can help.” 

 

The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians lives and livelihoods, consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, contact tracing, and isolating the ill and the exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90 percent) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Oregon COVID Bonds would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. “This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools,” stated Reynolds.  

 

“I want everyone to understand that the 2021-22 legislative session must be focused entirely on pandemic response and recovery,” said Reynolds. “I believe we can rebuild Oregon and make us stronger and more equitable in the process.” This legislative framework also accounts for a lack of federal leadership, positioning Oregon as a national leader.

 

The latest numbers in Oregon show that the state is predicted to peak on April 26. As a result of Governor Brown’s Stay Home Order, Oregon’s hospital systems have sufficient capacity to care for those sickest with COVID-19. Reynolds says that eventually, the cumulative number of new illnesses and deaths will plateau. Oregon will then enter a period of transition, and once sufficient herd immunity is achieved, we can move into post-pandemic recovery.

 

“As a physician, I have prepared my entire career for this moment,” says Reynolds. “We cannot rely on the status quo or politics as usual. We need leaders with medical expertise who can work across the aisle and bring fresh perspectives at this critical time in our history. We need courageous and bold action to make sure that Oregon comes out of this crisis stronger and more equitable than before.” 

 

Reynolds, who was recently endorsed by the Portland Tribune “[for] her invaluable insight for these troubling times”, also says that, “every state policy and every state agency will need to prioritize spending and services through the lens of the pandemic.” 

 

Read the full legislative framework here. Visit Reynolds’ COVID-19 website at oregoncoronavirusupdate.com or her campaign website LisaForOregon.com. Follow Dr. Reynolds on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (@lisafororegon).

 

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Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act Legislative Framework

 

Following is a legislative framework for a successful and equitable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act (HB-1). This legislative framework was drafted by Lisa Reynolds, M.D., candidate for Oregon State House of Representatives-District 36. Dr. Reynolds, who will solicit feedback from voters about what the Oregon State Legislature needs to focus on in the upcoming 2021-2022 legislative session. 

 

Dr. Reynolds will also work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to identify the most impactful and cost-effective steps to get Oregonians back on solid ground. The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act is a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians’ lives and livelihood. The framework consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, tracing of all contacts, and isolating the ill and the exposed. Extensive, if not universal, testing, both for the presence of the virus, that is, contagiousness, and presence of antibody, or immunity, is necessary before any significant reopening of the economy. Testing must be followed up with tracing of the contacts of all COVID-19 cases, and isolation for those infected or exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90%) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening. True economic reopening requires widespread immunity, either through previous COVID-19 illness or through widespread vaccination.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools, and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Any full scale ‘re-opening’ in the near future would risk Oregonians’ lives. Rather, restrictions must be lifted methodically and incrementally. The state needs to start planning for a massive vaccine campaign as soon as the vaccine is available. Oregon should be the first state with demonstrated ‘herd immunity’ so that Oregonians can resume safe interactions with friends, family, and neighbors. 

 

HB1: The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act of 2021-2022 Outline

 

Intra-Pandemic: Stay Home, Save Lives

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal

      • Educate and feed children

      • Protect the vulnerable from economic damage

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Test/trace/isolate - build a public health workforce 

    • Tech for schools - provide robust learning for every Oregon student

    • Table - feed the hungry, allocate unemployment benefits, provide rent relief and continue to ban evictions

 

Transition: reopening (gradual and partial)

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal:

      • Safe return to economic life (incremental, methodical)

      • Safe return to school 

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Universal testing/tracing/isolation - database

    • Statewide Alert system for Oregonians for disease hot spots

    • Build a vaccine fund - and a system to vaccinate all Oregonians

 

Post-Pandemic (herd immunity; post-vaccine) - a stronger, more equitable Oregon

  • Goals

    • Economic recovery 

    • Prepare Oregon for its greatest decade of economic growth

    • Improved lives for all Oregonians

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Oregon COVID Bonds - to raise and invest $4B/year for 5 years

      • Basics

        • Modernize public health and healthcare systems

        • 21st-century schools from PreK-post secondary

        • Build Infrastructure - bridges, public transport, bike lanes

        • Build Housing - affordable & supportive housing

      • Boosts: Climate action

        • Give preference and priority for projects that reduce carbon, increase climate resiliency, and increase economic opportunity equitably. 

 

The proposed funding would be through COVID-19 Bonds. This approach would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools. 

 

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