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Oregon Coronavirus Update 7/1/2020. Rising cases. Mask work. Kids and COVID. We can do hard things.

Writer's picture: Lisa Reynolds, MDLisa Reynolds, MD

Oregon Coronavirus Update

7/1/2020


Lisa Reynolds MD

This is Lisa Reynolds, MD. Portland Pediatrician, mom and daughter. Democratic nominee for State Representative, Oregon HD36.

Today: The US and OR continue to see rising case numbers. Oregon’s Governor Brown calls for statewide masking. The case for masking (repeat). Children can get and can transmit COVID (repeat). We can do hard things (repeat).


Coronavirus: The numbers

  • WORLDWIDE: 10.4 million confirmed cases, 510,000 deaths (100,000 new cases/day)

  • US: 2.6m confirmed cases, 127,000 deaths ( 48,000 new cases/day, an 80% increase over the past two weeks)

  • OREGON: 8600 confirmed cases, 201 deaths (last day: 181 new cases, 3 new deaths)


US cases are rising

You have probably seen this graph. US cases are rising while other parts of the world are successfully keeping COVID at bay. Why is this? Basic public health measures are not being routinely followed: social distancing + masking + handwashing. Re-openings are bringing unmasked people close together. In these settings, one contagious person can infect many others. This is called a “superspreader” event.

Furthermore, widespread testing, isolating those with COVID, tracing contacts of a COVID case, and quarantining those contacts will all go a long way to slow the spread of COVID.

This was preventable.










Oregon Cases are Rising (chart from July 1 New York Times)

(Reasons? See above.)



Oregon Measures: Statewide masking requirement!

Starting today, Governor Brown is requiring masking for Oregonians older than 12 years old in public spaces where social distancing (6 feet) is not possible. YAY! While I applaud this, I would call for stronger measures on masking, including:

  • Required masking for all Oregonians older than 2 years old. Current orders “recommend” masking for Oregonians 2-12 years old. (This recommendation gets lost in the announcement for required masking for older than 12 years old.) We know kids can get and transmit COVID (see below). We know masking is safe in kids older than 2 years old (though I would recommend kids 2-8 years old be supervised while masked). The CDC recommends masking for kids older than 2. In my office, kids are just fine with wearing a mask.

  • Required Masking in outdoor spaces when social distancing (6 feet) is not possible. While outdoor spaces are safer than indoor spaces, one can transmit or catch COVID in close proximity indoors or outdoors. WA and CA require statewide masking indoors and outdoors when social distancing is not possible.

  • Penalties for not masking. This mandate needs to have some “teeth” in order to be effective.

I’ve said it before, and the evidence has only increased, that we are FORTUNATE that masking works to slow the spread of COVID. We must require masking of all Oregonians (indeed, of all Americans) to lower COVID cases, which will save lives and allow for Oregon to continue to reopen safely. (I’ll repeat my wish that the federal government send 10 reusable masks to every American.)


Oregon: Young people and COVID. And School. And Masks

Chart from Oregon Health Authority Website 7/1/2020




An Oregonian article on 7/1 explains that COVID cases in Oregon are rising fastest in 0-10 year olds. There is also a dramatic increase of COVID cases in the 10-19 year olds. (And of course 20-29 year olds.) One daycare outbreak has been reported in a Lake Oswego Kindercare (8 children + 12 staffers have tested positive for COVID). OHA is not reporting other daycare outbreaks and cites privacy for not reporting.

This is all on the backdrop of a “lore” that kids cannot get nor can they transmit COVID. There are some schools that have opened successfully without seeing a rise in cases. Israel, on the other hand, saw a spike in cases in students, staff and families after reopening schools in May, prompting school shuttering. Suffice it to say, that it is simply an “uninvestigated notion” that kids cannot get and cannot spread COVID (article). This has implications for school opening in the fall.

The Oregon Department of Education’s plan for reopening schools does not have a masking requirement for students, but it does call for social distancing (35 ft2 of space per student), and masking for staff when social distancing is not possible. Governor Brown’s statewide masking mandate would apply to students over 12 (roughly 6th grade and older).


Oregon: Testing and Tracing (we are falling behind)

I continue to applaud the plans Governor Brown put forward in May for reopening. They are grounded in basic public health practices. The problem? We are not following the plan. (Oregonian OpEd).

  • Reopened Mult County even though it had rising numbers of hospitalizations

  • Mult County is not meeting its tracing requirements MANPOWER

    • requirement 15 tracers /100K residents (half what most PH folks recommend): 122 tracers

      • actual: 34 full time, 19 part time, 10 “other”

  • Other counties are not meeting tracing requirements OUTREACH

    • requirements: reach out to 95% COVID+ within 24 hours

      • Lincoln County (Pacific Seafood outbreak): 70% COVID + contacted within 24 hours in the first week, 39% in second week and Lincoln County had TWICE the recommended number of tracers.

  • Counties are not meeting community spread requirements: RESULTS

    • requirement: we can trace 70% of COVID+ to a source

      • Mult County: could only identify source in 49%. Full blown community spread. Tracing is no longer sufficient to contain COVID.

Conclusion

We can and we must do better to slow the spread of COVID. This is important to keep our economy open, to open schools in September and to save lives. We know what it takes. And we can do hard things.




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This website is written by Lisa Reynolds, MD, Portland, Oregon Pediatrician on the front lines of the coronavirus epidemic. Mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

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Lisa Reynolds, M.D., Announces COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery 

Legislative Framework

Proposed framework prioritizes health of all Oregonians, with phased restart of state’s economy

 

April 17, 2020 (Portland, OR) - Lisa Reynolds, M.D., a physician and candidate for Oregon House of Representatives-District 36 (NW/SW Portland), released a legislative framework called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, with the goal of making this the first bill of the 2021-22 legislative session (HB-1). 

 

“In the next weeks and months ahead, I plan to work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to help design Oregon's transition and recovery from the pandemic,” said Reynolds. “If we do this right, Oregon can come out better than ever. And of course, I will continue to reach out to Oregonians about what they need right now so we can help.” 

 

The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians lives and livelihoods, consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, contact tracing, and isolating the ill and the exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90 percent) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Oregon COVID Bonds would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. “This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools,” stated Reynolds.  

 

“I want everyone to understand that the 2021-22 legislative session must be focused entirely on pandemic response and recovery,” said Reynolds. “I believe we can rebuild Oregon and make us stronger and more equitable in the process.” This legislative framework also accounts for a lack of federal leadership, positioning Oregon as a national leader.

 

The latest numbers in Oregon show that the state is predicted to peak on April 26. As a result of Governor Brown’s Stay Home Order, Oregon’s hospital systems have sufficient capacity to care for those sickest with COVID-19. Reynolds says that eventually, the cumulative number of new illnesses and deaths will plateau. Oregon will then enter a period of transition, and once sufficient herd immunity is achieved, we can move into post-pandemic recovery.

 

“As a physician, I have prepared my entire career for this moment,” says Reynolds. “We cannot rely on the status quo or politics as usual. We need leaders with medical expertise who can work across the aisle and bring fresh perspectives at this critical time in our history. We need courageous and bold action to make sure that Oregon comes out of this crisis stronger and more equitable than before.” 

 

Reynolds, who was recently endorsed by the Portland Tribune “[for] her invaluable insight for these troubling times”, also says that, “every state policy and every state agency will need to prioritize spending and services through the lens of the pandemic.” 

 

Read the full legislative framework here. Visit Reynolds’ COVID-19 website at oregoncoronavirusupdate.com or her campaign website LisaForOregon.com. Follow Dr. Reynolds on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (@lisafororegon).

 

###

 

Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act Legislative Framework

 

Following is a legislative framework for a successful and equitable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act (HB-1). This legislative framework was drafted by Lisa Reynolds, M.D., candidate for Oregon State House of Representatives-District 36. Dr. Reynolds, who will solicit feedback from voters about what the Oregon State Legislature needs to focus on in the upcoming 2021-2022 legislative session. 

 

Dr. Reynolds will also work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to identify the most impactful and cost-effective steps to get Oregonians back on solid ground. The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act is a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians’ lives and livelihood. The framework consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, tracing of all contacts, and isolating the ill and the exposed. Extensive, if not universal, testing, both for the presence of the virus, that is, contagiousness, and presence of antibody, or immunity, is necessary before any significant reopening of the economy. Testing must be followed up with tracing of the contacts of all COVID-19 cases, and isolation for those infected or exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90%) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening. True economic reopening requires widespread immunity, either through previous COVID-19 illness or through widespread vaccination.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools, and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Any full scale ‘re-opening’ in the near future would risk Oregonians’ lives. Rather, restrictions must be lifted methodically and incrementally. The state needs to start planning for a massive vaccine campaign as soon as the vaccine is available. Oregon should be the first state with demonstrated ‘herd immunity’ so that Oregonians can resume safe interactions with friends, family, and neighbors. 

 

HB1: The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act of 2021-2022 Outline

 

Intra-Pandemic: Stay Home, Save Lives

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal

      • Educate and feed children

      • Protect the vulnerable from economic damage

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Test/trace/isolate - build a public health workforce 

    • Tech for schools - provide robust learning for every Oregon student

    • Table - feed the hungry, allocate unemployment benefits, provide rent relief and continue to ban evictions

 

Transition: reopening (gradual and partial)

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal:

      • Safe return to economic life (incremental, methodical)

      • Safe return to school 

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Universal testing/tracing/isolation - database

    • Statewide Alert system for Oregonians for disease hot spots

    • Build a vaccine fund - and a system to vaccinate all Oregonians

 

Post-Pandemic (herd immunity; post-vaccine) - a stronger, more equitable Oregon

  • Goals

    • Economic recovery 

    • Prepare Oregon for its greatest decade of economic growth

    • Improved lives for all Oregonians

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Oregon COVID Bonds - to raise and invest $4B/year for 5 years

      • Basics

        • Modernize public health and healthcare systems

        • 21st-century schools from PreK-post secondary

        • Build Infrastructure - bridges, public transport, bike lanes

        • Build Housing - affordable & supportive housing

      • Boosts: Climate action

        • Give preference and priority for projects that reduce carbon, increase climate resiliency, and increase economic opportunity equitably. 

 

The proposed funding would be through COVID-19 Bonds. This approach would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools. 

 

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