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Social Distancing and Coronavirus

Writer: Lisa Reynolds, MDLisa Reynolds, MD
Mar 14, 20203 min read

3/14/2020, 8 pm

UPDATE

Worldwide: 154K cases, 5,700 deaths (126 countries)

US: 2.7K cases, 58 deaths (49 states)

Oregon: 36 cases, first death.

Save Lives: Flatten the curve

We are in a coronavirus pandemic (pandemic: an outbreak of disease that spreads across several countries and is then spread through community contact (not just from outside travellers)). This novel virus (never before seen and so there is no inherent human immunity against it) will likely go on to infect 70% of the world’s citizens. If we see a rapid increase in infected patients, including an increase in high risk patients, we will outstrip our medical capacity and the fatality rate will be high. If we can spread out the pace of infection, we can better take care of the sickest patients and save their lives. This is what we call “flatten the curve”.

How to flatten the curve: Implement the protective measure of Social Distancing

The only tool that has effectively slowed the spread of coronavirus has been social distancing. This is because the disease is spread from person to person through droplets expelled by an infected person by coughing or sneezing. These droplets then enter another human through eyes, nose or mouth. The droplets are often transferred via hands (the hands of the sick person touching the well person or vice versa or the well person picks up droplets from a surface and infects themself by then transferring droplets to their own eye/nose/mouth).

What is social distancing?

It’s just what it sounds like. Keeping people apart from each other:

Stay out of congregate settings: school, church, workplace, museum

Avoid mass gatherings: concerts, parades, conventions, theaters

Maintain a 6 foot distance from others, especially if one of them is ill

It is important to institute these measures BEFORE there is widespread illness, otherwise it’s too late.

How to achieve social distancing?

Community and government interventions

Governments: close schools (3/14/20: 13 states + Washington DC have ordered statewide K-12 school closures, including Oregon; many regional closures: Seattle area, LA, San Diego). Cancel school events

Governments: Ban large gatherings (OR and WA have banned gatherings > 250 people)

Governments: Encourage employers to allow telecommuting.

Leagues: cancel/postpone sporting events (NBA, NCAA, MLB, MLS)

Individual changes may be even more important

Work from home

Stay home when sick

STAY HOME even when well

Keep your kids home including home from daycare (in Oregon, schools K-12 and many universities are closed, but daycares are open). I’m particularly concerned about plans to increase the number of kids in a given daycare center. We need to think creatively - do staggered work shifts and therefore have staggered daycare shifts? Miss work. Delay the software project. Close down the coffee shop where we probably shouldn’t be congregating anyway. (See MONEY below - I know we need to help folks do these hard things.)

Social Isolation

Social Isolation is recommended for those at highest risk of severe and fatal cases of coronavirus.

Those older than 60 years old

Those with co-morbid conditions such as heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and suppressed immune systems.

These folks need to stay home. Order food and groceries in. Have very few visitors, if any. This includes people in nursing homes.

This is very disruptive!

Yes it is, but it’s our best chance to slow the spread and be able to adequately take care of and save the lives of those at highest risk.

How can we make this less disruptive?

Technology can be a second best substitute for in-person classes, church services, singing groups, business meetings, dinner dates.

Money. All of us will feel some financial hit, whether it’s a decrease in our savings and retirement due to the stockmarket downturn or decreased pay due to missing work. Some of us will not have the same access to food provided by our schools. The most vulnerable are at risk of losing their jobs and their homes.

AND This is where we see the best of people and the best of government. Neighbors are stepping up to help each other. The US House passed temporary paid sick and family medical leave and as well as monies for health care, food security and unemployment insurance (and guess what? The US Senate is expected to pass this.) Furthermore, the government has promised that coronavirus testing will be free. There is also talk of a stimulus package to stop or dampen the effects of the recession. Remember when we bailed out banks? LFG.

IN SHORT

STAY HOME WHENEVER POSSIBLE

WHEN OUT - STAY 6 FT FROM OTHERS

KEEP YOUR KIDS HOME

CHECK ON YOUR AT RISK NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS

THE LIVES YOU SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN and those you love.

And remember - if you are about 75% good on this, it’s much much better than doing none of this.

 
 
 

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This website is written by Lisa Reynolds, MD, Portland, Oregon Pediatrician on the front lines of the coronavirus epidemic. Mom and daughter. Candidate for Oregon HD36.

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Lisa Reynolds, M.D., Announces COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery 

Legislative Framework

Proposed framework prioritizes health of all Oregonians, with phased restart of state’s economy

 

April 17, 2020 (Portland, OR) - Lisa Reynolds, M.D., a physician and candidate for Oregon House of Representatives-District 36 (NW/SW Portland), released a legislative framework called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, with the goal of making this the first bill of the 2021-22 legislative session (HB-1). 

 

“In the next weeks and months ahead, I plan to work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to help design Oregon's transition and recovery from the pandemic,” said Reynolds. “If we do this right, Oregon can come out better than ever. And of course, I will continue to reach out to Oregonians about what they need right now so we can help.” 

 

The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act, a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians lives and livelihoods, consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, contact tracing, and isolating the ill and the exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90 percent) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Oregon COVID Bonds would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. “This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools,” stated Reynolds.  

 

“I want everyone to understand that the 2021-22 legislative session must be focused entirely on pandemic response and recovery,” said Reynolds. “I believe we can rebuild Oregon and make us stronger and more equitable in the process.” This legislative framework also accounts for a lack of federal leadership, positioning Oregon as a national leader.

 

The latest numbers in Oregon show that the state is predicted to peak on April 26. As a result of Governor Brown’s Stay Home Order, Oregon’s hospital systems have sufficient capacity to care for those sickest with COVID-19. Reynolds says that eventually, the cumulative number of new illnesses and deaths will plateau. Oregon will then enter a period of transition, and once sufficient herd immunity is achieved, we can move into post-pandemic recovery.

 

“As a physician, I have prepared my entire career for this moment,” says Reynolds. “We cannot rely on the status quo or politics as usual. We need leaders with medical expertise who can work across the aisle and bring fresh perspectives at this critical time in our history. We need courageous and bold action to make sure that Oregon comes out of this crisis stronger and more equitable than before.” 

 

Reynolds, who was recently endorsed by the Portland Tribune “[for] her invaluable insight for these troubling times”, also says that, “every state policy and every state agency will need to prioritize spending and services through the lens of the pandemic.” 

 

Read the full legislative framework here. Visit Reynolds’ COVID-19 website at oregoncoronavirusupdate.com or her campaign website LisaForOregon.com. Follow Dr. Reynolds on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (@lisafororegon).

 

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Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act Legislative Framework

 

Following is a legislative framework for a successful and equitable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic called the Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act (HB-1). This legislative framework was drafted by Lisa Reynolds, M.D., candidate for Oregon State House of Representatives-District 36. Dr. Reynolds, who will solicit feedback from voters about what the Oregon State Legislature needs to focus on in the upcoming 2021-2022 legislative session. 

 

Dr. Reynolds will also work with state leaders, as well as community and business leaders, to identify the most impactful and cost-effective steps to get Oregonians back on solid ground. The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act is a bold response to COVID-19’s unprecedented threat to Oregonians’ lives and livelihood. The framework consists of three major components:

 

  1. A large-scale and ongoing public health response that utilizes universal testing, tracing of all contacts, and isolating the ill and the exposed. Extensive, if not universal, testing, both for the presence of the virus, that is, contagiousness, and presence of antibody, or immunity, is necessary before any significant reopening of the economy. Testing must be followed up with tracing of the contacts of all COVID-19 cases, and isolation for those infected or exposed.

  2. The moonshot goal of achieving widespread (“herd”) immunity (80-90%) to COVID-19 through demonstrated antibodies and/or vaccination. This is a prerequisite to full economic and societal opening. True economic reopening requires widespread immunity, either through previous COVID-19 illness or through widespread vaccination.

  3. Post-pandemic massive investment to modernize Oregon’s healthcare system, schools, and infrastructure through the sale of Oregon COVID Bonds.

 

Any full scale ‘re-opening’ in the near future would risk Oregonians’ lives. Rather, restrictions must be lifted methodically and incrementally. The state needs to start planning for a massive vaccine campaign as soon as the vaccine is available. Oregon should be the first state with demonstrated ‘herd immunity’ so that Oregonians can resume safe interactions with friends, family, and neighbors. 

 

HB1: The Oregon Pandemic Recovery Act of 2021-2022 Outline

 

Intra-Pandemic: Stay Home, Save Lives

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal

      • Educate and feed children

      • Protect the vulnerable from economic damage

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Test/trace/isolate - build a public health workforce 

    • Tech for schools - provide robust learning for every Oregon student

    • Table - feed the hungry, allocate unemployment benefits, provide rent relief and continue to ban evictions

 

Transition: reopening (gradual and partial)

  • Goals

    • Primary Goal: Save as many lives as possible

    • Secondary Goal:

      • Safe return to economic life (incremental, methodical)

      • Safe return to school 

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Universal testing/tracing/isolation - database

    • Statewide Alert system for Oregonians for disease hot spots

    • Build a vaccine fund - and a system to vaccinate all Oregonians

 

Post-Pandemic (herd immunity; post-vaccine) - a stronger, more equitable Oregon

  • Goals

    • Economic recovery 

    • Prepare Oregon for its greatest decade of economic growth

    • Improved lives for all Oregonians

  • Strategic Initiatives

    • Oregon COVID Bonds - to raise and invest $4B/year for 5 years

      • Basics

        • Modernize public health and healthcare systems

        • 21st-century schools from PreK-post secondary

        • Build Infrastructure - bridges, public transport, bike lanes

        • Build Housing - affordable & supportive housing

      • Boosts: Climate action

        • Give preference and priority for projects that reduce carbon, increase climate resiliency, and increase economic opportunity equitably. 

 

The proposed funding would be through COVID-19 Bonds. This approach would allow Oregonians, as well as others around the country and the world, to invest in Oregon. This will allow the state to build a healthcare system that improves the health of every Oregonian, to complete long-neglected infrastructure projects and to modernize our schools. 

 

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